Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,622 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Mississippi State @ Alabama
Alabama has been flying, but at some point, they’re going to have an off night, right? The concept of being “due” might not apply well in all cases, but with college basketball teams—especially young ones—I haven’t seen it disproven. Mississippi State plays great defense. Mississippi State will tighten things up. We like it to get a little interesting in Tuscaloosa.
Pick: Under 143 (-110). Low confidence.
Indiana @ Minnesota
On the other side of the rhythm coin, Indiana looks poised for a down night, but with Minnesota banged up, shouldn’t a down night still leave the Hoosiers winning comfortably?
Pick: Indiana -10.5 (-110). Low confidence.
