Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,696 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 50–51, and we’re down 11.46 units. We’re up 2.84 units over the last week, but that is a highly selective sample.
LSU @ Georgia
LSU’s been a better team with Jalen Cook, and they can be all over the place, but Georgia is a fine team playing at home. Beating South Carolina was great, but this has been the one Georgia has to have in the middle of this stretch. We think they’ll get it.
Pick: Georgia to win –165. Low confidence.
NC State @ Virginia
For all Virginia’s problems—and they really stepped it up on Saturday, even if that was a should–win down at Georgia Tech—they’re been reliably solid at home. The schedule sets up nicely for them over the rest of the month. Don’t be surprised if they start climbing back towards the bubble.
Pick: Virginia to win –255. Low confidence.
Auburn @ Alabama
Alabama is going to win a big game this year eventually. Auburn is not going to go undefeated in SEC play. We think those things correct tonight.
Pick: Alabama to win –158. Low confidence.
