Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 810 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 9% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Houston Baptist @ Nicholls State
Houston Baptist is testing the limits of a number of models this season. The Huskies are, by KenPom, the worst defensive team in Division I basketball by a margin equivalent to one that separates nearly 100 teams in other portions of the rankings. They also play the fastest basketball in Division I, which has resulted in a season in which they’ve allowed fewer than 95 points just once, on opening night against Tulsa.
Nicholls State, with an adequate defense and an offense that’s right around the median in the Southland, should pour it on tonight.
Pick: Nicholls State -15.5 (-110).
Providence @ Seton Hall
It looked for a while there like Providence was surging. But since the high-water mark—a one-point overtime victory at Marquette—the Friars have lost by twelve to Butler at home, beaten St. John’s by five at home, and lost by four to Creighton on the road. Not exactly inspiring stuff.
Tonight, they have to deal with a Seton Hall team that’s yet to lose in conference play. No, Seton Hall didn’t play their best basketball Saturday against St. John’s, especially on the defensive side. That’s just one result, though, and it came on the road. The Pirates have a body of work large enough to warrant your trust.
Pick: Seton Hall -9 (-105). Low confidence.
Memphis @ Tulsa
Tulsa’s been loathe to let anyone speed them up this season, maintaining consistently low possession counts in all but a handful of games. It’s working for them, and it makes sense for a team without many offensive weapons. Memphis, meanwhile, has slowed down since conference play started, and while opponents do factor into that, it’s worth noticing.
Even assuming Memphis plays at their average pace tonight, this total projects unwarranted skepticism about the Tigers’ defensive ability. The last two teams to score more than a point per possession against Memphis were Wichita State and N.C. State. The former of those two did it by just one point. The latter did it back on Thanksgiving.
If Memphis gets the ball moving, this could get troubling, but more likely than not, they’ll keep Tulsa in the mid-60’s, providing some breathing room for the under.
Pick: Under 139 (-110). Low confidence.
