Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,685 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball. We’ll do this week’s NFL futures…later. They’re still in a fine spot, though.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 39–49. We’re down 14.30 units. We continue to get smoked.
Maryland @ Northwestern
Maryland’s hot, but that’s so fickle in college basketball, to the point where I sometimes wonder if it’s more a sign of an impending loss than continued victories. Either way, Northwestern’s been who they’re supposed to be in all but one game this season. We like that to continue tonight.
Pick: Northwestern to win –190. Low confidence.
Nevada @ San Diego State
For our other moderate moneyline favorite (as we try to steady this ship), we’re taking San Diego State. We still think the Mountain West goes through them.
Pick: San Diego State to win –275. Low confidence.
