Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,667 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball. We’ll do this week’s NFL futures later this week, most likely tomorrow or Friday (so, probably not Saturday).
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 33–37. We’re down 5.72 units.
UConn @ Xavier
It’s been a while since UConn lost, so we could see a little complacency setting in. Something like, “Hey, playing with Clingan out isn’t all that bad.” Xavier, meanwhile, is a little desperate and should have their best crowd of the year in a place where the crowds can get very, very loud. This isn’t a bad price for that kind of recipe.
Pick: Xavier to win +170. Low confidence.
Wisconsin @ Ohio State
Boston College @ Syracuse
We don’t think the gap between Wisconsin and Ohio State is all that big, whether Steven Crowl plays or not. We’ll pair the Buckeyes with Syracuse, who we think has more upside left to realize than BC, who’s playing great but probably won’t play much better.
Pick: Parlay – Ohio State & Syracuse to win (+166). Low confidence.
