Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,793 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball, and at long last our Super Bowl pick.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 72–61–1 and we’re down 8.10 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
NFL futures: We started the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio. So far, we’re up 5.67 units.
UMass @ St. Bonaventure
Loyola @ George Mason
Both the Bonnies and George Mason are in position for bounce-back wins today, and while the market doesn’t quite like them as much as kenpom (which is unusual, given they’re home teams in conference games), we aren’t seeing any injury concerns, which makes us think the market’s just high on UMass and Loyola, each of whom have won a decent amount the last couple weeks but not in especially loseable games.
Pick: Parlay – St. Bonaventure & George Mason to win (+138). Low confidence.
Alabama @ Auburn
This is our tiebreaker if we split the other two. The script is for a straightforward series split, and while that sometimes doesn’t work out and Alabama’s style tends towards randomness, we do believe Auburn is the better team, which always helps.
Pick: Auburn to win –245. Low confidence.
Villanova @ Xavier
Georgia @ Mississippi State
Villanova probably isn’t fixed after one good performance. Xavier remains tough to beat at home. We think there’s a little opportunity there, and we’ll juice it with a Mississippi State team who’s in that same bounce-back position as SBU and GMU, minus the “hot” opponent.
Pick: Parlay – Xavier & Mississippi State to win (+102). Low confidence.
Super Bowl
We’re sticking with the Niners, as scary as Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs team is. What it comes down to, for us, is who’s been the better team this season. Maybe that’s dumb, but we’re going to err on the side of underthinking it.
With our existing 5.67-unit surplus, and with our other Super Bowl futures, eleven units on the moneyline leaves us in the following scenario:
- 49ers win: 9.55 units in additional wins for a 10% profit on the season.
- Chiefs win: 16.50 units in additional losses for a 7% loss on the season.
Why eleven units? If we can break even on college basketball through Sunday, this would leave us with an all-time average return, per unit, of –0.496%. We can round that to an even 0% and claim to be break-even bettors over the last five and a half years.
We’re not proud.
Pick: San Francisco to win –125. Low confidence. x11
