Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,893 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, but only single-day bets. We’re a little late for futures, but we’ll double up tomorrow to make up for it.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 107–74–1 and we’re down 2.18 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Providence @ Marquette
Oklahoma @ Iowa State
Seton Hall @ Creighton
We like all three of these individually—they meet our marks for where we don’t expect upsets. They’re all too short of odds to take, though, so we’re trying another parlay and wrapping them together. These have gone better lately than they went in December and January, but we are definitely nervous.
Pick: Parlay – Marquette, Iowa State, & Creighton to win (–143). Low confidence.
Cal @ Colorado
This is almost entirely on gut, so take it with the appropriate grains of salt. We shouldn’t love Cal coming in off the winning streak. This should be part of that last parlay.
What we think, though, is that Cal is more like Colorado than people realize. They’re talented. They’re trying to figure out what works. The difference is that Cal has, in Pac-12 play, been more consistent? I know some of this with Colorado is injuries. But Cal’s been playing at least NIT-quality basketball since the start of December, and this is a long price between an NIT-quality team and a team smack dab on the bubble. Also, we think Mark Madsen is a really, really good coach.
Pick: Cal to win +750. Low confidence.
