Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,686 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Kentucky @ Florida
Florida lost Colin Castleton, Kentucky’s been playing better…the narrative is all over the Cats, who are a two-point underdog on KenPom. But for all the pixels we’ve filled with criticism of the narrative over the years…we’re riding with it here. It’s just too hard to see Florida pulling it together. Maybe that bites us.
Pick: Kentucky -2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Iowa @ Wisconsin
Wisconsin, at home, against a fellow mediocre team? Iowa’s definitely better, but not by enough. Not by enough.
Pick: Wisconsin +1 (104). Low confidence.
