Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,876 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks.
Active markets today: Only college basketball.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 95–70–1 and we’re down 3.63 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Providence @ Xavier
This fits everything we like with these, to the degree that it makes us nervous. Xavier is better than Providence. Xavier is playing at home. Providence is coming off two wins. Xavier’s coming off two losses. The market favors Xavier by a little more than kenpom does. Sign us up.
Pick: Xavier to win –220. Low confidence.
Colorado State @ New Mexico
This comes at a bigger premium, because everyone’s wise to the Mountain West thing by now (home teams win), but it’s a very similar setup. Hence, the premium. (The Mountain West thing exists in other leagues, too, but the MWC is doing it to meme levels.)
Pick: New Mexico to win –360. Low confidence.
