Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 863 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 7% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Syracuse @ Louisville
Louisville is coming off back-to-back losses to mediocre foes. In looking for what went wrong, it’s not hard to spot the problem. Against Georgia Tech last week, they shot 12.5% on their 24 three-point attempts. Against Clemson over the weekend, they shot 22.2% on 27 three-point attempts.
There were, of course, other problems, specifically the Cardinals’ collective failure to stop John Newman in the Clemson game. But overall, three-point shooting was the most noticeable shortcoming for a team that’s been the eleventh-best in the country at it, even playing a respectable schedule.
Is Louisville cold? It’s possible. It’s more likely, though, that this was just a blip, a poor performance forced by one of the stronger perimeter defenses in the country (Georgia Tech) and one that’s stepped up noticeably since ACC play began (Clemson). Against a Syracuse team that’s fairly average on the perimeter relative to the rest of Louisville’s schedule, it’s unlikely they’ll shoot below 30% again. Even if they do, though, they could still cover. Syracuse is, as they often are, a poor defensive rebounding team, with foul-prone bigs (on the aggregate) who’ll have their work cut out for them against Malik Williams.
Expect Chris Mack’s team to bounce back.
Pick: Louisville -9 (-110). Low confidence.
Lehigh @ Colgate
Colgate’s offense is simple: shoot threes. It’s a strategy that’s worked well in the Patriot League, as the Raiders’ magic number is just three over Boston University for the regular season title and all-important home-court advantage in the conference tournament. They lost on Sunday down in Baltimore against Loyola (the Maryland edition), but Loyola’s been surging with Cam Spencer and Santi Aldama in the lineup, and the issue for Colgate was not scoring. The offense was still clicking, and it should continue to do so tonight. As for the defense, Lehigh’s struggling offense offers a respite after Sunday’s happenings. Look for Colgate to stay on track for a possible clinch this weekend.
Pick: Colgate -13 (-115). Low confidence.
