Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,671 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Kentucky @ Mississippi State
A thought process you could do worse than with Kentucky this year is to fade the narrative. When they’ve been expected to play well, they’ve underperformed. When the sky has been falling, they’ve shown up just fine.
This isn’t to say that the narrative is dictating Kentucky’s play. Rather, it’s a claim that the narrative is simply often wrong about this year’s Cats. We don’t trust Mississippi State to stay hot.
Pick: Kentucky +3 (-110). Low confidence.
TCU @ Iowa State
TCU is so banged up. It isn’t just Mike Miles, and it isn’t just a question of who plays and sits. When Eddie Lampkin last played, he was a shell of himself and then missed the next game. The Frogs need to retreat and reset, and we wouldn’t be surprised if it looks just like that tonight in Ames against an Iowa State team facing significant pressure to hold it together as things crack around the edges.
Pick: Iowa State -5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
