Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,860 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Only college basketball.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 84–66–1 and we’re down 5.50 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
UMass @ Richmond
This fits almost all of our parameters. We trust the Spiders enough.
Pick: Richmond to win –255. Low confidence.
Miami @ Clemson
South Carolina @ Auburn
We don’t love Clemson, given they’re somewhat primed for a letdown, but we don’t like any other options besides this Auburn one, and the Auburn moneyline’s too short to make it worth it to take it alone. We’ll combine them and cross our fingers.
Pick: Parlay – Clemson & Auburn to win (–195). Low confidence.
