Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,244 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.3% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Maryland @ Clemson
Freshman big man PJ Hall is expected to return tonight for Clemson following a missed game and a half due to concussion, and the implication of his return, judging by this line, is that Clemson’s defense will be better for it.
This is dubious. For one thing, Clemson’s defense is already rated as the tenth-best in the country by KenPom. For another, little in Hall’s high school scouting report cites him as particularly defensive-leaning—he should help on offense about as much as on defense, if the reports are accurate. For a third, Hall didn’t start either of the games he did play, meaning his overall impact is probably rather small, whatever the direction. It’s possible the idea is that his size will entice the Tigers to slow things down, or that his rebounding will help shore up what’s been a weak spot for them on the defensive end, but overall, it’s hard to see PJ Hall as reason to take the under. Maybe there’s something else out there, but this is an apparent opportunity.
Pick: Over 129 (-115). Low confidence.
Northern Iowa @ Richmond
Also reportedly returning tonight is UNI veteran Trae Berhow, who shot 42% last year from beyond the arc while averaging nearly five attempts per game. UNI is missing AJ Green, the focal point of their offense, and it’s justified to be concerned about what that will do to this total. But Green’s absence at the very least shouldn’t help UNI’s defense, and it’s possible his high usage was pulling down the Panther efficiency last season. Again, not a slam dunk, but there appears to be some opportunity.
Pick: Over 142 (-110). Low confidence.
San Diego @ UCLA
Finally, Mick Cronin. It’s San Diego’s first game of the year, which is likely the cause of this line being 20 instead of, say, 17. In these picks, we’ve had mixed enough results picking teams playing their first game of the year to justify taking a shot here, but more than that, we’re betting on UCLA’s inconsistency.
The question concerning UCLA is whether they’re more like the team that laid down and got run over by San Diego State, then took three overtimes to beat Pepperdine, or the one that dog-walked Seattle and beat Cal by twenty. The answer, in all likelihood, is somewhere in the middle, and if you’re wondering, yes—Cal is significantly worse on paper than Pepperdine. Is it possible UCLA’s hot? Sure. But it’s more likely they’re just inconsistent, which isn’t abnormal for a college basketball team. With Marquette coming to town on Friday, there’s also the chance of an absence of focus.
Pick: San Diego +20 (-110). Low confidence.
