Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,888 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.5% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Tennessee Tech @ Western Carolina
Western Carolina’s kind of a bad team, but they’ve been playing like a fine team, with some ugly losses but no losses in games they should have won. Tonight’s qualifies as a game they should win, playing an also kind-of-bad Tennessee Tech at home with Tyler Harris back from effectively a three-game absence. It should be close, but the Catamounts should win it.
Pick: Western Carolina +3 (-110). Medium confidence.
Samford @ Alabama State
Samford and Alabama State are two of the fastest teams in the country, but there’s a problem: Alabama State can’t score. And for all the Hornets’ struggles, one thing they do rather well is defend the three-point line, from which Samford attempts 52% of its field goals. It’s fair to expect a track meet, but the rims might need some Advil after this one.
Pick: Under 155 (-110). Medium confidence.
