Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,193 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,257 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got a college basketball play, we’ve got our NFL futures for the week, and we’ve got a little more college football futures mechanizing. Here’s the context on where we’re at in each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 19–13. We’re up 4.15 units and we’re up 13%.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We’re down about 43 units so far, but we have upside remaining. More importantly: All of the bets we list here grade out as positive-value plays. So, if you’ve been faithfully following, we’re still on track to not lose more than 25% (and we retain upside), but if you’re new, these are a good place to start.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. Again, this is circular, because we use FPI to make the picks, but FPI’s probabilities show us with an expected return on the 150 units of 6.00 units, or 2.0%.
San Francisco @ Vanderbilt
We’re back to the free throw idea here, with the Dons good at them. The kenpom line leans in their favor as well, and so does the concept that they could bounce back after a bad showing in Tempe over the weekend.
Pick: San Francisco –2.5 (–110). Low confidence.
College Football Playoff
The value’s there on Michigan, according to Movelor, and the argument’s pretty simple: They’ve been the best team this year. We’re more comfortable placing this because we have so much upside on Alabama, but we’re also comfortable with it because bets on Alabama require faith in Alabama to get better than what they’ve been. We see that a lot with the Tide, but it’s never guaranteed.
Pick: Michigan to win national championship +180. Low confidence. x5
FCS National Championship
We’re putting another unit on this. It keeps NDSU/Alabama paths profitable for us. The value’s still there, as it was yesterday.
Pick: North Dakota State to win +600. Low confidence.
Super Bowl
It’s unclear what’s holding the Dolphins back in the odds. They’re tied for first in the AFC, four of their five remaining games are at home, and the next two are against the Titans and Jets, each of whom Miami should beat comfortably. They probably shouldn’t be the favorite to get the AFC’s bye (their one remaining road game is against the Ravens), but Miami’s in a good place.
Pick: Miami to win +800. Low confidence.
NFL Playoffs
These odds might be reacting pretty heavily to Trevor Lawrence’s injury, but if they are, it’s in some weird ways. More likely, they’re just overstating the probability of the current status quo holding. We’ll take our shot at a shakeup.
Pick: Indianapolis to miss playoffs +160. Low confidence.
Pick: Houston to miss playoffs +300. Low confidence.
Pick: LA Chargers to make playoffs +700. Low confidence.
Pick: Cincinnati to make playoffs +750. Low confidence.
