Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 714 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Colgate @ Binghamton
Colgate is the Patriot League favorite, and while their battles last month with power-conference competition ended poorly (double-digit losses at Clemson and Syracuse, a 29-point loss at Auburn) their overall rating is right around where it began the year.
Binghamton enjoys little such optimism, with the America East squarely Vermont’s to lose, and plenty of distance between Vermont and the Bearcats.
Still, Binghamton’s played well of late, winning three straight against Division I opponents at one point (Sacred Heart, NJIT, and Army). They’re far from a good team, but at home, it’s more likely than not they’ll keep the game a single-digit affair.
Pick: Binghamton +13 (-110). Low confidence.
Texas Tech @ DePaul
DePaul has yet to lose, and after their latest road victory over a Big Ten foe, they’re squarely in the hunt for a spot on the bubble. They’re on track to win as many as twenty games, and if they can get through tonight unscathed, they’re a little better than a 50/50 bet to enter conference play undefeated.
Tonight, though, will be a challenge.
No, Texas Tech isn’t what it was last year. Yes, they lost their last two games. Still, they’re one of the thirty best teams in the country, and while DePaul did beat a top-40 team on the road in Iowa, that doesn’t make repeating that sort of performance easy.
The visitors may be without Jahmi’us Ramsey tonight, their highest-usage player. Ramsey, a freshman, has scored as many as 27 in a game this year, but missed Friday’s loss to Creighton with a knee injury. It’s possible he’ll return tonight, in which case this line may swing a few more points.
Even where it stands, though, it’d be reasonable to pick DePaul with Ramsey healthy. KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margins have the Blue Demons a one-point favorite at home, and those only slightly devalue Texas Tech from Ramsey’s absence Friday. It should be a good game. It certainly feels like a high-leverage game. It’s a game in which DePaul should be at worst a toss-up to win.
Pick: DePaul +2 (-110). Low confidence.
Weber State @ Utah Valley
Utah Valley played their worst game of the season Sunday, losing by 31 at Colorado State. It was a disastrous performance, and it’s fair that it seems to have caused oddsmakers to reevaluate the Wolverines.
The reevaluation, though, looks to have gone too far. No, Utah Valley is not a great team, but they’re still the same team that held Kentucky within eight in Lexington, beat UAB in Birmingham, and took down North Dakota State in Fargo. They’re inconsistent, but they’re the better team, playing at home. They should cover a three-point spread.
Pick: Utah Valley -3 (-110). Low confidence.
