Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,224 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not be great, it’s positive over a big sample size. And that’s not nothing.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
St. John’s vs. BYU
We said it yesterday, and we’ll say it again now: BYU is nothing near last year’s team. Meanwhile, St. John’s has shown some promise early. Not in a contend-in-the-Big-East sense, but in a maybe-they-can-reach-the-bubble sense. Rasheem Dunn’s absence is concerning, but it hasn’t slowed them down so far.
Pick: St. John’s +1 (-110). Low confidence.
Duquesne vs. UNC-Greensboro
UNC-Greensboro is trendy. Wes Miller’s there. They’ve been good for a few years now. They play in a fun league.
But Duquesne made big strides of their own last year, as our NIT Bracketology’s comments section would have had you know back in March. They laid a big egg against UALR in their opener, but they’re still narrowly likely to be the better team tonight. Take the points.
Pick: Duquesne +2 (-110). Low confidence.
Gonzaga vs. West Virginia
Yes, it’s possible the odds and numbers haven’t yet caught up to how good Gonzaga is. Let’s acknowledge that possibility, and let’s even grant that it might be exacerbated for teams at either end of the good/bad spectrum. Gonzaga, from what we can tell, is the clear best team in the country right now.
Still, eight and a half is a lot of points. And as always with these things, it’s safer to assume the numbers have kept up with Gonzaga, as they’re designed to do, unless we hear directly from those putting the numbers together (Ken Pomeroy, in this case), that they haven’t.
Could it get out of hand? Yes. But that doesn’t make it the wrong play.
Pick: West Virginia +8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
