Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,920 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
We’ll start with the bowl, then hit the college basketball.
Armed Forces Bowl: Army vs. Missouri
Army’s 3-1 in bowls under Jeff Monken, and while we don’t know how indicative that is of his success or lack thereof tonight, we’re willing to find out.
Pick: Army -7 (-105). Low confidence.
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Hofstra @ Monmouth (men’s college basketball)
Zach Cooks might be out again tonight for Hofstra, having missed Saturday’s upset of Arkansas. If anything, though, this should help the case for the under. Per Evan Miyakawa’s work, Hofstra’s been a better defensive team when Cooks has been off the court, an idea supported by them holding the Razorbacks to just over one point per possession in North Little Rock. Combine that with Monmouth’s defensive strength and a possibly overestimated Hofstra pace (Saturday’s tempo was likely an Arkansas thing), and the under looks good (if Cooks does play, there’s a little risk, so be forewarned on that, but the line may adjust accordingly if that news comes out, so…we’ll see).
Pick: Under 150 (-110). Medium confidence.
