Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,513 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
One bowl game, two college basketball plays:
Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama
We’re still on the worse-bowl-record-head-coach train. Tyson Helton’s 2-1 in these on his career. Kane Wommack’s coaching his first tonight.
Pick: South Alabama -3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Houston Christian @ Texas Tech
Texas Tech just put up 102 on Jackson State (and held them to 52) in a high-pace game, and that’s likely fresh on whichever minds have pushed this line to these heights. Houston Christian does have a defensive approach that basically amounts to, “let the other team shoot layups,” with results you can probably predict. But 33 should be too large a spread for a team that likes to play at Tech’s pace.
Pick: Houston Christian +33 (-110). Low confidence.
Mississippi Valley State @ Tulane
Different idea here, but another D-I bottomfeeder. MVSU’s the slower-paced team in this instance, and Tulane’s offense is suspect enough that it’s unclear whether they’ll take advantage of the opportunity to score at will.
Pick: Mississippi Valley State +29 (-105). Low confidence.
