Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 745 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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At least one pick today—more may be coming, but getting this one out before tip-off.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Oregon State vs. UTSA
UTSA’s played well of late.
UTSA’s much closer than Corvallis to Houston, where this game’s being played.
Oregon State’s still better than this line would have you believe.
UTSA underwhelmed to begin the year, losing five straight by double digits while plunging from 144th in KenPom to open the season to 240th entering the night December 3rd. Since then, they’ve made gains up to 213th, but their defense just doesn’t project to be able to keep up with Oregon State’s efficient scoring, and their offense should struggle to find the bottom of the net. If there’s still time, take the Beavers.
Pick: Oregon State -8.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Note: If you are auditing this or are otherwise interested, the pick above was published at approximately 4:20 PM CST, prior to the tip-off of the Oregon State/UTSA game. Picks below were added later, but also before their respective tip-offs.
Alabama @ Samford
On Sunday in this space, I picked Samford to cover against Hawaii. They did not cover, nor did they come close to covering, and they allowed 94 points. It was a bad, bad showing.
Still, there’s value on the Bulldogs tonight—even more than there was last time.
Yes, the crowd should be rather pro-Alabama, with the game happening in Birmingham, but at the same time, Samford’s on their home court, and while Alabama looked good this weekend against Penn State, it’s likely they’ll struggle to put their host away.
The Crimson Tide are certainly the better team, and in what should be a fast-paced game, it’s definitely possible they’ll run off with it, as Hawaii did. In a world where 55% confidence is reasonably high, though, you can be 55% confident in Samford.
Pick: Samford +10 (-110). Low confidence.
Delaware State @ Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is not what they were the last three years.
They’re still a lot better than Delaware State.
Delaware State is universally rated one of the worst teams in the country this year—and while this isn’t to pick on them, they have yet to keep a game against any Division I opponent closer than eight points.
They have, to their credit, played better of late, with both of their eight-point losses coming in their last two games, but their hosts tonight also enter with momentum: On Monday, Jacksonville State took Evansville (who, you may recall, beat Kentucky, but isn’t actually all that good, but is still kind of decent in the big picture) and sent them home a 26-point loser. None of these recent results matters enormously, but for the sake of building and dispelling a plausible narrative to explain this line’s slim-ness, here we are.
The Gamecocks aren’t great.
They should still blow Delaware State out of the water.
Pick: Jacksonville State -13.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Saint Mary’s vs. Arizona State
Saint Mary’s, as one is accustomed to seeing, is playing some slow basketball so far this year. And while they are, as one is accustomed to seeing, ending up with low totals, their offense is efficient enough to make up for the possession count. The Gaels are the best three-point shooting team in the country. They’re among the thirty best at overall shooting and avoiding turnovers. They’re among the fifty best at limiting blocked shots.
Against a team that wants to speed it up as much as Arizona State, look for this game to end up in the low 140’s. Yes, ASU’s three-point defense is a red flag, but Saint Mary’s has more weapons than anyone the Sun Devils have faced. Factor in the higher-than-normal likelihood of overtime, and the over is a clear play.
Pick: Over 136 (-110). Low confidence.
