Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,254 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.2% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Same note as yesterday, before we get to the picks themselves: We may be pivoting soon into less frequent published bets, at least for a few months. The results aren’t where they’ve been, and we don’t have a great track record with conference games in college basketball. Since our average ROI is still positive, we’re going to keep going, and we may keep going even if it dips slightly negative, but once conference play heats up, it’s likely we’ll be shifting to trying to build a solid futures portfolio and get that average ROI some breathing room. Anyway, if the bets start disappearing for stretches, that’s why.
Toledo @ Marshall
Iran Williams’s availability for Marshall is the question mark here. If he plays, things will be tougher inside for a Toledo team still figuring out how to deal with this year’s absence of AJ Edu. But even then, there’s value to be had on Toledo. The Rockets don’t have quite as much experience as Marshall, but Marreon Jackson gives them stability at the point which should help in the effort to slow the pace down against Dan D’Antoni’s offense (yes, he’s from that D’Antoni family, and his team plays like it).
Pick: Toledo +7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Samford @ Troy
Here, it’s possible the line’s shifted because of unreported news about Jalen Dupree, but the more likely scenario is that Samford’s getting too much credit for playing Georgia close on Saturday. It was a great showing for Bucky McMillan’s team, and the upset of Belmont the week before was similarly impressive, but metrics have accounted for those, and Troy isn’t going to be as willing to let the Bulldogs run as those two were. Dupree or not, expect Khalyl Waters to spend a lot of time at the free throw line, and in what should be an even matchup, call Troy the narrowest of favorites.
Pick: Troy +2 (-110). Low confidence.
