Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,483 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
We’ve got our World Cup futures action for today, plus college basketball. On the World Cup side, for context: We started with fifty units in our World Cup bankroll. So far, we’ve profited by 16.5 units, and we have two units pending entering today (one each on Argentina and Morocco to win it all, at +165 and +1000 respectively).
2022 World Cup
We’re seeing value on Argentina here, using SPI, which is what’s gotten us where we’re at. It’s likely that these odds will lengthen, because France is so likely to win today, but should Morocco stun again, the shortening will be dramatic. We’re already in on Morocco today in other fashions, but another unit doesn’t hurt, and this is the best way we can see to use it.
Pick: Argentina to win -120. Low confidence.
UCF @ Mississippi
Mississippi scored 98 their last time out, and UCF scored 75. But this game’s different. UCF—who slowed it down even while scoring 75—slows it down when they have possession, and they play strong defense, and their biggest defensive vulnerability is one that plays into Mississippi’s greatest offensive strength, but offensive rebounds extend possessions, which lowers the total possession count, which leads to fewer points being scored. One team should wind up in the 50’s here.
Pick: Under 130 (-110). Low confidence.
Western Kentucky @ Louisville
The question with Louisville at this point is whether they’re getting actively worse. Could they be worse than the 240th-best team in the country, where KenPom has them now?
Maybe so. Maybe so.
But you would think that at some point, the talent on the Louisville team would take over and they’d give a team a good game again. And you’d also think that at some point, the team really would hit rock bottom. Maybe we’re walking into another bludgeoning, but we just can’t quit thinking the floor has been found.
Pick: Louisville +7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
