Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 731 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Chattanooga @ Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech stormed out of the gate, beating Clemson on the road and thrashing four straight low-majors before upsetting Michigan State in Maui. They have since lost three in a row by double digits.
Inconsistency is to be expected with young teams—especially those reliant on shots behind the arc. Still, tonight should be a good game for the Hokies to regroup.
The problem with this total is that it seems to be banking on too strong a Hokies regrouping, while simultaneously giving Chattanooga’s offense more credit than it deserves. The Mocs struggle to put the ball in the basket, and figure to be content to play Virginia Tech’s preferred slower pace tonight. This is far from a slam dunk, but the under’s the play.
Pick: Under 137 (-105). Low confidence.
North Dakota State @ Cal State-Northridge
Lamine Diane remains ineligible for at least one or two more games, and Cal State-Northridge will certainly enjoy his return when it comes. For the time being, though, they’ve at least stabilized, finally getting their first wins of the season in the last two weeks and stopping what had been a free-fall through the ratings.
Against a North Dakota State team that might be without Sam Griesel tonight, with the game in Northridge, this game’s pretty much a tossup. Which means the spread tilts towards the underdog.
Pick: Cal State-Northridge +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
