Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,641 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: Single-game MLB bets, MLB futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 114–102–3 so far this year, down 11.67 units. Last night was especially brutal. We are admittedly considering shutting down this effort for the season.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Detroit @ Seattle
Since the All-Star Break, only the White Sox have hit the ball worse than the Tigers. Take the now-traded Mark Canha and Carson Kelly out of those numbers and it gets even worse.
The Mariners, meanwhile, though terrible at scoring runs all season, are above league-average at the plate over the same stretch.
Tarik Skubal is legitimate. He is a Cy Young-quality pitcher, not just a Cy Young candidate. But you can’t count on him to get run support, and George Kirby is nearly as good.
Pick: Seattle to win –134. Low confidence. (Skubal and Kirby must start.)
ALCS
There’s narrow value on the Yankees today, and while we managed to make them a profitable scenario for us in the World Series market, they’re not yet a profitable pennant option. Doubling up on this helps them get there for us.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +260. Medium confidence. x2
