Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 416 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. This is because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Chicago (AL) @ Detroit
Iván Nova’s had a few good starts lately. He’s allowed only four runs, two earned, in his last three outings, one of which was a complete-game victory over the Marlins.
This isn’t yet reason for White Sox fans to get excited.
In the two starts prior to those three, Nova allowed ten earned runs in just more than ten innings. His FIP since the All-Star Break is 5.08, better than the 5.27 he posted before the All-Star Break, but not by much.
Nova was a solid pitcher for much of his career, and still isn’t bad. But the home run boom has hit him particularly hard. While his fly ball rate has remained around a conventional 30% in all his MLB seasons, his home run/fly ball ratio has consistently been above the league average in recent seasons, and with that he’s allowed a painful number of long balls.
This year’s particular struggles make sense on the surface: the ballpark formerly known as New Comiskey is a fly ball hitter’s paradise. But Nova’s allowed home runs at a comparable rate on the road to what he’s allowed at home, casting doubt on whether the problem is White Sox-specific.
He’ll be a free agent after this season. Presumably a team will want him. But that team might need to play in a homer-stifling division for Nova to be worth much to them.
Pick: Detroit to win (+105). Low confidence.
Texas @ Cleveland – Game 1
One of many positive developments this season for the Rangers has been the emergence of Ariel Jurado as a viable starter.
Jurado has amassed 1.2 fWAR on the year in only 86 innings, a WAR/IP rate comparable to that of a few starters expected to pitch in playoff games, like Wade Miley and Masahiro Tanaka.
Jurado, 23 years old, was never heralded as much of a prospect, and it’s hard to find any particular strengths of his.
But it’s also hard to find any particular weaknesses, and if the guy can consistently be serviceable through next year, the Rangers might once again have one of the more surprisingly good pitching staffs in the American League.
Pick: Texas +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Philadelphia @ Arizona
The Diamondbacks made an interesting deal at the trade deadline, sending one of their top prospects—shortstop Jazz Chisholm—to the Marlins for one of Miami’s better prospects and, at the time, best pitchers—Zac Gallen.
It was a move that to some degree made sense for both sides. Miami increased their overall future value while dealing from a bit of a pitching surplus. Arizona replaced Zack Greinke in their rotation in the short-term, keeping alive their continually frustrating wild card hopes (the Diamondbacks have the second-highest run differential in the NL, yet are only .500) for the price of a middle infielder, an area at which they currently excel with Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte, provided they keep Marte in the infield. If Marte keeps playing more outfield, it makes less sense.
Which means more than anything, this seems to be a move based in Arizona’s confidence in Zac Gallen.
Gallen’s career is off to a strong start. With seven starts under his belt, he has a 2.72 ERA and a 3.58 FIP. He’s striking out over a batter per inning, and he has yet to allow more than three runs in a start.
Gallen only came up in June, so it’s too early to make much of his stats, but what we can make of him is largely positive. His XBA is .205, between Blake Snell and Aroldis Chapman on the leaderboard. He walks too many batters (11.9% of them), but he never did this in the minors, suggesting it might be an aberration.
The Diamondbacks bet big on Gallen. It might pay off.
Pick: Under 9 (+100). Low confidence.
