Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 940 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
We’ll start with a look at futures today before moving to a run line and a moneyline for this evening. Futures odds, because they’re inconsistently available from Vegas consensuses, are coming from Bovada.
World Series Futures
The picture remains largely the same—the Astros are undervalued, along with some high-upside teams favored to make the playoffs but not win their division. Here are notes on four teams FanGraphs likes this week.
Houston: Trash cans aside, the Astros are pounding the ball. Their wRC+ trails only those of the Yankees and the White Sox, and while their pitching staff has its warts, there are the pieces there to cobble together an effective postseason staff, even with Justin Verlander and Roberto Osuna’s 2020 futures uncertain (not to mention that of Forrest Whitley). There’s still value here, though it’s fair to lay off for a bit and avoid overextension if you’ve already bought in.
Oakland: Complicating the Astros’ efforts are their division-mates to the west. Jesús Luzardo’s arrival shores up the rotation to compliment one of the best bullpens in the game, while the middle of the order remains formidable. They might not knock Houston off the ladder in the AL West, but they’re poised to make noise.
Tampa Bay: The rough thing about rough weekends this year is that they’re comparable to disastrous halves of months in the 162-game format, and the Rays had a rough weekend. Four games back in the division in early August is bad no matter when the season started, but at the same time, we’ve only seen eleven games. Don’t give up on Tampa Bay just yet.
San Diego: They’ve fallen off pace a bit as their schedule’s gotten seemingly tougher (jury’s out on the Rockies), but they’re still right there with the Dodgers, and it’s not unreasonable to hope on them competing in October. The rotation doesn’t blow one away on paper, but its top three—Chris Paddack, Garrett Richards, and Dinelson Lamet—have an average projected FIP of 3.94, which is respectable. Kirby Yates’s rough start has the bullpen looking more suspect, but as with Oakland and Tampa Bay, San Diego can scratch out wins.
Pick: Houston to win World Series +1100. Low confidence.
Pick: Oakland to win World Series +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win World Series +1600. Low confidence.
Pick: San Diego to win World Series +2500. Low confidence.
Boston @ Tampa Bay
Martín Pérez has walked too many batters through his first two starts. His FIP, though, has been solid, and his xwOBA’s in the league’s better half. He’s not what Boston wants for a second starter, but if he finds a few more corners, he should be fine.
Pick: Boston +1.5 (-150). Low confidence.
Game 2: New York (AL) @ Philadelphia
As of right now, it looks like Jordan Montgomery will be starting the nightcap for the Yankees. Whoever it is, they’re going to have a tough time besting Aaron Nola in a seven-inning game.
Pick: Philadelphia to win (-105). Low confidence.
