Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,492 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Baltimore @ New York (AL)
Low (but positive) value, low confidence. Matt Harvey’s been better than his ERA indicates this year for Baltimore, but Jameson Taillon, for the most part, has provided consistently solid production for a Yankees team that’s needed it, and he figures to do the same tonight.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -270. Low confidence.
Kansas City @ Chicago (AL)
Again: Low (but positive) value, so low confidence. Carlos Hernández’s walks overshadow what’s been a decent transition to the rotation overall. Lucas Giolito’s spin rate might have dropped after the checks started for foreign substances, but his numbers have stayed good, and we’re over 40 innings now, a rather substantial sample.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win -250. Low confidence.
