Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,101 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks.
One MLB moneyline today, two MLB futures, a collection of futures in college football. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 87–58–4, we’re up 21.53 units, we’re up 14% (the average line on our winners has been –109). Our eleven-game winning streak ended last night, but let’s see if we can start another one today.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 71.69 units, or 9.6%
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We have 18 units invested so far.
Cincinnati @ San Francisco
Hunter Greene has struggled with control since coming off the IL, and the Giants very loudly have their full bullpen available this afternoon. We like San Francisco to get the sweep.
Pick: San Francisco to win –163. Low confidence. (Greene and Webb must start.)
World Series
It was another good night for the Astros, and their odds didn’t shorten by much, so we’ll keep addressing that deficit. There’s also value on the Phillies, who’ve nearly locked up a playoff spot, and we could use a little bit of that. They were getting close to dipping into being a negative scenario for us.
Pick: Houston to win +800. Medium confidence.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1800. Medium confidence.
CFP National Championship
There are three teams we know have the talent to win the national championship. There may be a few more, but we know of three, and while Ohio State needs to learn to beat Michigan, they’ve got this weird setup going on where it’s believable they match up much better than Michigan does with the SEC. Even if the matchup piece isn’t true, Movelor sees value here, and the matchup piece should only add to that.
Pick: Ohio State to win +800. Low confidence.
ACC
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the ACC get messy, and Pitt’s got a great path to take advantage of messiness if it happens. They don’t play Clemson and they get Florida State at home. Among the potential fill-ins for those two, the Panthers have a solid shot.
Pick: Pitt to win +2500. Low confidence.
Big 12
Texas is sucking up a lot of oxygen in this market despite no one seeming to really believe they’re *that* much better than the rest of the league. Oklahoma is sucking up some oxygen too, with these markets seemingly expecting a bounce back from the Sooners. We like these three next in line. They’re in great places as programs, and while one of them—TCU—is losing tons of talent from last year’s team, they’d have to get a whole lot worse to not be valuable at these odds.
Pick: Kansas State to win +750. Low confidence.
Pick: Texas Tech to win +1000. Low confidence.
Pick: TCU to win +1200. Low confidence.
Pac-12
We also have Utah to make the playoff, but winning the Pac-12 is an easier feat than that. They’re our favorite, and these are obscene odds for a favorite. Meanwhile, Oregon State gets both Utah and Washington at home and doesn’t have to play USC in the regular season. That’s a good path.
Pick: Utah to win +650. Low confidence.
Pick: Oregon State to win +1000. Low confidence.
Big Ten East
Everyone and their mother is high on a Penn State breakthrough, but evidently moms don’t gamble. This is a solid price, even if Penn State’s definitely the third team in this division until they prove otherwise.
Pick: Penn State to win +450. Low confidence.
Big Ten West
Iowa doesn’t have to play Ohio State or Michigan, and we’re skeptical of just how quickly Luke Fickell can turn Wisconsin around.
Pick: Iowa to win +250. Low confidence.
SEC West
It seems to be Alabama vs. LSU in the West this year, and we’ll take Alabama at better than 50/50 in that race.
Pick: Alabama to win +100. Low confidence.
