Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,704 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB futures and moneylines. College football futures will wait until tomorrow, but they’re mostly ready to go. Apologies for the continued delay on those. Long story short, blame the Michigan rebuild.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 149–125–3 so far this year, down 4.84 units. Over the last 20 days, we’ve been trying a different collection of approaches. So far, that effort is 37–23, up 7.96 units. We’re getting close, but we’ve gotten close before.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Kansas City @ Cleveland
The core of our success these last three weeks has been a metric we’re calling Heat Index. It measures how well each team has played over a recent sample (coincidentally, a three-week sample right now) using wRC+ and FIP–. Then, it measures the gap in hotness/coldness between opponents. Its first choice is 17–3 and up 8.05 units.
Today, with the Guardians the second-coldest* team in baseball, Heat Index is back on the Royals. It’s a lot to ask, Kansas City chasing a four-game sweep of one of the best teams in baseball this year, but we’re asking.
*Anybody else see what the Rockies did last night?
Pick: Kansas City to win +135. Low confidence. (Wacha and Bibee must start.)
Anaheim @ Detroit
Heat Index’s second choice has been comparably successful, but over a much smaller sample. We debuted it on Friday and it’s 5–0 so far, up 4.09 units.
The Tigers are the fifth-hottest team in the game, and yesterday, they climbed above .500. Making the playoffs is still probably too much to ask, but FanGraphs has them close to 1-in-25 to make that happen. They’re alive, and the Angels aren’t, and that’s the exact kind of thing the theory behind Heat Index was looking for.
Pick: Detroit to win –158. Low confidence. (Canning and Englert must start.)
Toronto @ Boston
Yesterday, we tried Heat Index 3 for the first time. It lost. Is Heat Index a two-trick pony? This is how we figure that out.
Heat Index 3 is back on the Blue Jays here. The Red Sox are the third-coldest team in the game, and only the Marlins have produced worse pitching than Boston since August 7th. For what it’s worth: Brayan Bello has been solid over that timeframe. This is the same play that lost for us last night.
Pick: Toronto to win +130. Low confidence. (Bassitt and Bello must start.)
World Series
The odds didn’t change on these guys, both of them won, and in the Padres’ case, both teams they’ve been chasing in the division lost. Still the best value out there today.
Pick: San Diego to win +1400. Medium confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1800. Medium confidence.
