Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 991 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
The first batch of this week’s futures today, with odds for those futures, as they always do in this space, coming from Bovada (hard to find an accurate Vegas consensus for futures). But first…
Kansas City @ St. Louis
Among qualified pitchers last season, nobody drew more groundballs than Dakota Hudson. This will help tonight with the wind blowing out in St. Louis.
Pick: St. Louis -1.5 (+110). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Arizona
The Rockies aren’t dead yet, even if their hopes have tumbled following the hot start. Getting Jon Gray’s worst-among-qualified-pitchers LOB% to even out to something more average should help.
Pick: Colorado +1.5 (-170). Low confidence.
Los Angeles @ San Francisco
If the Giants sell (more on that below), Kevin Gausman might be one of the best arms on the market. A starter with a 3.12 FIP and some bullpen experience isn’t available everywhere, and while that 3.12 FIP should regress, he’s still likely a sub-4.00 pitcher by true ability. There are no teams that couldn’t use another one of those.
Pick: San Francisco +1.5 (+125). Low confidence.
Futures
We’ve written a lot lately about how the Cardinals are undervalued. While it’s true that this undervaluation diminishes over extended periods of play due to the likelihood of fatigue, it still holds up against these odds, and with the Cubs overvalued (a run differential ten worse than that of the Cardinals over ten more games is a bad sign), there’s value to be had in the NL Central.
Pick: St. Louis to win NL Central +550. Low confidence.
There’s speculation that Cleveland might try to deal Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac following the incident in which they disregarded team coronavirus protocols. If they do trade Clevinger, they should get a much-needed bat. If they hold him, they’ll have one of the best playoff rotations in the game.
Pick: Cleveland to win ALCS +950. Low confidence.
The White Sox are for real. This has become eminently clear over the last few days, and while markets are adjusting, they haven’t caught up yet, having initially been over the moon over a more questionable set of data. José Abreu is an MVP candidate. Lucas Giolito is second in line for the AL Cy Young. The roster doesn’t stop with those two.
It’s a fun time to watch AL Central baseball.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win ALCS +1100. Low confidence.
If the Giants sell, well, this is moot. But there’s an increasing likelihood they don’t, and with them currently in playoff position over halfway through the season, 100-to-1 NLCS odds are too good to pass up.
Pick: San Francisco to win NLCS +10000. Low confidence.
The Mets are…the Mets. But the Nationals’ struggles and the Strasburg injury have second place in the NL East open for the taking, and if the Mets do make the playoffs, and all goes as planned, they’ll have arguably the best pitcher alive starting Game One of a best-of-three Wild Card Series, then potentially two games in the Division Series. Combine this with the fact that Rick Porcello’s .413 BABIP is not going to last (and his 3.05 FIP’s around the top quartile in the MLB) and things look hopeful in Queens, even after yesterday’s massacre.
Pick: New York (NL) to win NLCS +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: New York (NL) to win World Series +4000. Low confidence.
