Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,090 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One moneyline today, two futures.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 81–57–4, we’re up 19.07 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –106). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August has been good to us.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 79.93 units, or 10.7%. (I realized we were calculating our % eROI off last year’s 1,040-unit portfolio, not this year’s 750-unit size. So, that’s why this number jumped today. My bad.)
Miami @ San Diego
I believe the last time we bet on Seth Lugo was the time he gave up eight runs in the fourth inning after leading 5–0 and went on to accuse the Dodgers of stealing signs.
We’re back in!!
In all seriousness, that was a high-BABIP inning, and Lugo’s FIP over his last three starts—a stretch which includes that outing—is perfectly respectable. We see Alcantara as a little overvalued because of how high his ceiling is. The thing about high-ceiling pitchers is that if their average performance isn’t great (Alcantara’s has been merely good), their median is worse than their average, because of the skew. Alcantara’s median performance, by game score, is not a quality start. Lugo’s is. Lugo isn’t better, but that median makes us comfortable riding him this afternoon in California.
Pick: San Diego to win –129. Low confidence. (Alcantara and Lugo must start.)
AL West
We’re going back to two of these again, further inflating our Astros/Rangers divide. Here’s where our division portfolio now stands:
- NL East: +3.47 units (Atlanta)
- NL West: –6.30 units (Los Angeles)
- AL Central: +4.19 units (Minnesota) or –17.00 units (Cleveland)
- AL East: –26.00 units (Baltimore) or +4.98 units (Tampa Bay)
- NL Central: +17.99 units (Milwaukee) or +6.00 units (Chicago) or –50.00 units (Cincinnati)
- AL West: +10.06 units (Houston) or –7.00 units (Texas) or +32.00 units (Seattle)
In the likeliest outcome, the one where all favorites win, we’re just fine, especially given the Orioles winning the ALCS would net us 504 units in that market, meaning we’d get some leverage in exchange for the 26-unit loss. If the Mariners jump ahead, we’re in great shape, and can withstand the Cubs or Guardians winning either Central. Without that, though, we need more upside to insure against those results, and that’s why we’ve added these two on the Astros. It’s a risk—the Rangers are still leading the dang division—but it’s our best option for the price, and it could set us up well to hedge back on the Rangers if the Astros gain a few-game lead.
The division portion isn’t the only part of our portfolio—see: Orioles example—but in years in which we enter October in the black, we can operate from a position of greater power. Also, we don’t have a single play down on Houston to win the World Series. They’re a –102-unit outcome in that market. When we see value on them, then, we’re going to take it.
Pick: Houston to win +120. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win +120. Medium confidence.
