Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,681 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB futures and single-game MLB bets.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 137–119–3 so far this year, down 9.71 units. We’re trying three new approaches, something we started the Thursday before last. So far, that effort is 23–16, up 3.16 units. It’s still a small sample, but it’s been a nice couple weeks.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Arizona @ Miami
Heat Index keeps winning, improving to 11–2 last night. It’s up 4.25 units.
In the interests of keeping “recent performance” recent, we’re switching to using the last three weeks of games, starting today. We were doing post-All-Star Break, trying to avoid trade deadline noise, but that sample’s grown a little too large to really reflect who’s hot and cold. We’re open to pivoting back, but for today, we’re rolling with a shorter-term approach. That leads us to betting on the Diamondbacks rather than to betting against the White Sox.
Pick: Arizona to win –154. Low confidence. (Montgomery and Muñoz must start.)
Milwaukee @ St. Louis
Smallest Favorite dropped its fourth straight last night, falling to 7–6. It’s still up 0.49 units, but we’re doubting we actually found anything here. If Heat Index wins, we’ll probably replace this tomorrow with Heat Index’s second choice. It depends a little on what happens in this game.
Anyway, St. Louis is very, very narrowly favored here. Our thesis is that the market should trust them and favor them by more.
Pick: St. Louis to win –105. Low confidence. (Myers and Gibson must start.)
Baltimore @ New York (NL)
Dogs Only lost last night as well, falling to 5–8 with a balance of –1.65 units. The bright side remains run differential, which is still +5. We’re not ready to punt on this just yet.
Cole Irvin only narrowly meets our model’s criteria. His FIP’s meaningfully better than his xERA.
Pick: Baltimore to win +124. Low confidence. (Irvin and Manaea must start.)
AL East
In futures markets, we’re grabbing the Yankees again, even though the value’s still only narrowly positive. They were too close to being an unprofitable scenario for us in the AL East.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –115. Medium confidence.
ALCS
In a higher-value play, the markets are a little behind on the Red Sox and Mariners. The Mariners are falling out of the Wild Card race. The Red Sox are still in it. It’s a longshot, but that’s what creates the value.
Pick: Boston to win +3000. Medium confidence.
