Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,504 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
The odds for the future come from Bovada due to the lack of a current/accurate Vegas consensus online. First, though:
Chicago (NL) @ Cincinnati
Adrian Sampson has a 5.82 career FIP, and while he last pitched in the majors in 2019, his FIP for the Iowa Cubs sits at 6.37 after 81.2 innings pitched.
Pick: Cincinnati -1.5 (-155). Low confidence.
NLCS
Within the NLCS segment of our portfolio, this gives us Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Philadelphia as profitable options, with a high floor on the Dodgers and a medium floor on the Reds. In other words, there’s a high probability we’ll exit the NLDS with a profitable option still in play. Available at positive eROI thanks to the market expecting the Giants to play like they’ve played all year (which might be fair, but we’re betting against it), we’ll take it.
Pick: Atlanta to win +850. Low confidence.
