Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 529 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Detroit @ Cleveland
Tigers position players have, collectively, done something rather impressive this season.
They’ve compiled a negative fWAR.
Yes, to date, the Detroit Tigers, absent pitching, have been one win worse than a collection of replacement level players.
Some of this, of course, is hitting. A lot of it, in fact. They’ve got a 78 wRC+ as a team, not last in the league only by the grace of the Miami Marlins. But their defense has also been strikingly bad, over 48 runs worse than a hypothetical troupe of average defenders, by FanGraphs’ measurement.
This year’s Tigers aren’t going to set any records for futility in the standings—their 2003 ancestors took care of that. But barring a three-and-a-half game comeback over this final week and a half, they’ll finish below the Orioles in the ledger.
Which is, again, rather impressive.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Texas @ Houston
Gerrit Cole’s year isn’t getting the attention given that of his teammate, Justin Verlander. And that’s fair. Verlander’s the aging star. Verlander’s got the better ERA. Verlander’s thrown more innings. Verlander’s got the no-hitter.
But the MLB fWAR leader among pitchers is not Justin Verlander. It’s Gerrit Cole. And the sheer power of his numbers isn’t getting enough attention.
Cole has struck out 39.4% of opposing hitters. The next closest qualifying pitcher—Verlander—comes in at 35.3% in the metric. His xwOBA is a sterling .242, turning average hitters into something worse than Daniel Descalso, Travis Shaw, Billy Hamilton, and Chris Davis have been this season. As was said, he’s the fWAR leader, though he’ll need to outpitch Max Scherzer today to hold onto that title.
Gerrit Cole probably won’t win the Cy Young this year. He might make it close, but it’s almost certainly going to Verlander. He’ll have arguably the better prize, though—what could well be an historically lucrative contract this offseason, when he finally hits free agency.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105). Low confidence.
