Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,391 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Just MLB futures today. For context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line.
AL Central
There’s value again in the AL Central, and this time it’s on the Twins, who sit one mere game out of first place. What we really like here is that the odds are longer than 2-to-1. In a three-team race, if you can keep getting different teams at odds longer than 2-to-1, you’ll keep accruing value. We’re short on the White Sox now, but the worst-case scenario across all divisions remains rather mild, and we have plenty of upside, not to mention a good amount of time.
Pick: Minnesota to win +275. Medium confidence.
ALCS
We’ve suddenly become rather invested in the Rays, and we’ll take that. One thing that points towards this having great value is how disparate the odds are on Tampa Bay to win the pennant across different sportsbooks. If a long-side outlier looks like it has value, it probably does.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +2500. Medium confidence.
