Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,084 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Both the moneyline and futures today. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 76–55–4, we’re up 16.60 units, we’re up 12% (the average line on our winners has been –106). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August is going well so far.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 86.74 units, or 8.3%.
Anaheim @ Texas
We don’t like anything very much on today’s board, so we’re doing the thing where we take the Rangers at home. That trend hasn’t let up, and the Angels are fading fast.
Pick: Texas to win –172. Low confidence. (Detmers and Gray must start.)
NL Central
We’re doubling up on this again today, continuing to try to cover our bases in the event the Orioles hold on and win the AL East, which is looking likely. The Brewers are already our best option in the NL Central, but there’s a lot of value still available on them, and we have upside within that market on the Cubs as well. Even with the Milwaukee loss last night, their division title probability improved, as they were an underdog and the Cubs and Reds, who also lost, were each favorites.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –150. Medium confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –150. Medium confidence.
