Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,660 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB futures and single-game MLB bets.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 124–111–3 so far this year, down 12.55 units. We’re trying three new approaches, something we started on Thursday. So far, that effort is 10–8, up 0.32 units. Inconclusive.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
New York (AL) @ Chicago (AL)
No change here. Heat Index still sees Yankees/White Sox as the best play. Of the three new approaches, Heat Index has been the best—it’s up 2.54 units over six days.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –225. Low confidence. (Warren and Martin must start.)
Kansas City @ Minnesota
This line has moved towards Kansas City in the last ten or twenty minutes as first pitch approaches. At the moment we placed these, though, the Royals were the smallest favorite on the board. That approach—picking the smallest favorite—has gone 4–2 for us and is up 1.73 units.
Pick: Kansas City to win –108. Low confidence. (Ragans and Varland must start.)
Atlanta @ San Francisco
This one’s messy. The underdog approach we use picks the White Sox for tonight, and we’ve already bet against them with the Heat Index pick. Given how badly the underdog approach has been going (1–5, down 3.95 units), we’re not going to prioritize it over the thing that’s generating returns. Instead, we’ll move to our second option, gritting our teeth and accepting that the Atlanta bullpen’s a little wiped.
We’re one loss away from beginning to fade the underdog approach, something we’d begin to do tomorrow. If this wins, the jury’s still out.
Pick: Atlanta to win +113. Low confidence. (Holmes and Ray must start.)
NL East
The Braves pulled it out last night in San Francisco, and with another Phillies loss, they’ve narrowed the gap to six games. Neither Atlanta nor Philadelphia’s schedule is particularly difficult the rest of the season, but each does get tough over the rest of the month thanks to one specific opponent: Between now and Labor Day, the pair will play one another seven times, beginning with a three-game set in Atlanta this coming week.
Ignoring the question of whether Atlanta’s catching Philly at the right time, these seven games help the Braves’ comeback chances. They negatively correlate the Braves and Phillies’ remaining records. That might be something markets are underrating. It’s also possible Atlanta’s just been winning the last few days, and books are customarily slow to react.
Pick: Atlanta to win +850. Medium confidence.
World Series
There’s a shred of value available on the Guardians today, and we’ll take it, especially given their continued lead in the AL Central is hurting our portfolio. If they hold on in the Central, it continues to look likely that they’ll get the 2-seed in the American League, with the 1-seed not out of the question. There’s a tight pack at the top of the MLB-wide standings, but right now, the Guards are tied for the lead.
Pick: Cleveland to win +1800. Medium confidence.
