Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 434 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our About page.
Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Baltimore @ New York (AL)
J.A. Happ was a godsend for the Yankees in 2018, posting a 2.69 ERA over 11 starts down the stretch while compiling a 7-0 record. His FIP over the period was 4.21, but FIP only matters when predicting future performance. Whether he was lucky or good, Happ got the job done.
In 2019, things have been much worse.
Happ enters today with 23 starts and 120 innings under his belt—a fairly robust sample. His ERA is 5.48. His FIP is 5.67.
The main thing that’s changed for Happ is the rate at which he allows home runs. Having allowed 1.19 per nine innings over his career, on average, his 2.18 mark is a noteworthy step backwards. And the problem isn’t that he’s allowing more fly balls—that number’s stayed close to constant. Instead, it’s that the rate at which those fly balls turn into home runs has gone from 11.4% over his career to 20.1% in 2019.
Some would hypothesize that this is bad luck. And it’s possible that’s part of it. But Happ’s xSLG (his opponents’ expected slugging percentage given quality and frequency of contact) is .461, worse than that of 80% of his fellow pitchers, and equal to J.T. Realmuto’s actual slugging percentage (for context in how good a .461 slugging percentage is). And even if Happ was watching fly balls leave the park at a league-average rate, as xFIP assumes, his predicted ERA would be 4.91. Still not what the Yankees want, and indicative of further problems.
Happ has never struck out tons of batters, but this year, his K-rate is the lowest it’s been since 2013, at 18.6%. This, as with the xSLG, is worse than 80% of his fellow pitchers.
J.A. Happ might be experiencing some bad luck. But not a 5.48 ERA’s worth of bad luck.
Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (+130). Low confidence.
Seattle @ Detroit
Edwin Jackson is starting the 312th game of his career tonight—this one for the Tigers, who signed him in July after he was released by Toronto.
Jackson has the painful distinction of having the sixth-worst fWAR of any pitcher who’s appeared in a major league game this year, despite throwing fewer than 35 innings so far. Making matters worse, in his case fWAR is the more generous between the two primary measurements, as his FIP of 8.23 is actually better than his 9.35 ERA.
It’s a small sample, but it’s verging on significant, and at this point it would take Jackson nearly 20 straight innings without an earned run to lower his ERA below six.
The Tigers are, of course, out of the playoff picture. But it’ll be interesting to see at what point they, or Jackson himself, simply pull the plug on the veteran starter.
Pick: Over 10 (-105). Low confidence.
Los Angeles @ Miami
Dodger Stadium is not a particularly run-friendly environment. Over the last decade, its park factor has been outside of baseball’s bottom ten just once, and its average position has been around 25th, meaning on average, five parks a year allow fewer runs, adjusted for overall quality of offense and defense, than Dodger Stadium.
Still, this year’s Dodgers are fourth in the MLB in runs scored, and lead the National League. And while they’ve played ten games at Coors Field this season, this isn’t enough to outweigh the 64 they’ve played at home and the 15 they’ve played in the rest of the NL West’s fellow run-preventative ballparks (the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants combine with the Dodgers to take four of the eight lowest park factors in the 2019 MLB).
Which makes the Dodgers’ offensive performance all the more impressive.
All six of Los Angeles’ qualified hitters have wRC+’s above 100, with half of them (Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Justin Turner) at or above 130. When the plate appearance threshold expands down to 75, only catchers Russell Martin and Austin Barnes fall below 90 in wRC+, and the emergence of Will Smith (193 wRC+ in 80 PA’s) seems to have fixed that relative offensive hole.
The biggest stories around the Dodgers are their pitching, their depth, and Cody Bellinger. But their sheer offensive might seems to go underappreciated, and is something no other team in the NL can match.
Pick: Over 8 (-110). Low confidence.
