Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 961 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Adding a few more futures today—odds for those will come from Bovada, as usual, since the Vegas consensus is hard to accurately find on MLB futures. But first…
Chicago (NL) @ Cleveland
The wind’s blowing in from right tonight in Cleveland, at least to start the game. With neither offense particularly potent so far, and two good starting pitchers, it’s fair to expect Kyle Hendricks to at least keep it close.
Pick: Chicago (NL) +1.5 (-190). Low confidence.
MLB Futures
The Rays have recovered from their debacle with the Orioles and sit within striking distance in the East. A crack’s opened for the Angels to finish in second place in the West as the Astros struggle. The numbers look good for the Reds and Brewers compared to their odds, and that’s without factoring in that the Cardinals will likely end up with a tougher schedule, since their most likely games to be permanently wiped are a few of this week’s against the Pirates and Tigers.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win ALCS +700. Low confidence.
Pick: Anaheim to win ALCS +2500. Low confidence.
Pick: Cincinnati to win NLCS +1500. Low confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win NLCS +2000. Low confidence.
