Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,501 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
The odds for the future come from Bovada because there’s no consistently current/accurate Vegas consensus online. First, though:
Arizona @ San Francisco
Kevin Gausman’s had a few mild struggles of late. His last time out, though, he put together an eight-strikeout, six-inning, one-run performance. Reassuring, if reassurance was even needed in the first place.
Pick: San Francisco -1.5 (-125). Low confidence.
NLCS
In anticipation of bulking up on our NLCS portfolio as a whole, we’re bulking up on the Brewers today. The risk, of course, is injury to one of their top three starters. It’s a real possibility. But even if that happens, the top two starters are so good, and Josh Hader is so good out of the bullpen, that they’d be rather formidable in a playoff series.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +450. Low confidence.
