Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,388 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Just MLB futures today. For context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, plus another 520 in reserve in case we need to hedge down the line.
World Series
If we can get value on someone in a market where we previously had no bets down on them, or if we can flip a team from being an unprofitable outcome for us to being a profitable outcome for us within a given market, we take that. As with these last two days, that leaves us with choices this morning.
Ultimately, we decided to take these two and leave the Twins’ ALCS profitability matter for tomorrow (or later). The reasoning is that with nothing down on the Rays, betting them changes our overall portfolio more than flipping the Twins from unprofitable to profitable within the ALCS, and with better value on the Mariners here than on the Twins in the pennant market, betting them is rather clearly the better choice. Here’s where these plays leave our World Series scenarios (listed in order of FanGraphs World Series probability):
- New York (NL): +55 units
- Los Angeles: -98
- Houston: +4
- New York (AL): -50
- Atlanta: +186
- San Diego: +68
- Toronto: +41
- Milwaukee: +76
- Seattle: +56
- Philadelphia: +56
- Tampa Bay: +4
- St. Louis: -98
- Minnesota: -98
- Chicago (AL): -98
- Cleveland: -98
- Boston: -46
- San Francisco: +112
We’d like to be in better shape within those top four, but even if all four of those receive byes, two currently represent profitable scenarios for us, with it nearly impossible for us to have any more than four profitable-scenario teams among the final eight (and the likeliest number either five or six). This is just how the portfolio is currently constructed—we have a long ways to go—but our average scenario and our median scenario are both profitable, and our hedging routes look promising. Another added benefit, too, is that the AL Central teams are mostly profitable ALCS routes for us, which mitigates some risk. We’re really only scared of worlds where the Yankees face either the Dodgers or the Cardinals.
What’s driving this value? Honestly, it might be the Orioles. Their lingering presence in the race has markets offering cheaper prices on teams whose playoff spots they might steal, while FanGraphs still views Baltimore making the field as a high improbability. Thankfully, their odds will always be rather long, so a quick hedge will always be an option.
Pick: Seattle to win +4000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +5000. Medium confidence.
