Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,342 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Tampa Bay @ Boston
The Red Sox are probably without Matt Barnes out of the bullpen after he worked two innings last night, but the overall undervaluing of them looks to outweigh that, especially on the run line as a favorite, a bet which gives heavier weight to scenarios in which Barnes wouldn’t be used anyway.
Pick: Boston -1.5 (+165). Low confidence.
Toronto @ Texas
We’re still nailing down the park factor for the Rangers’ new stadium, but it doesn’t seem to be a massive inflator offensively, so no red flag there.
Don’t put too much stock in Kyle Gibson’s Opening Day disaster. One game isn’t often all that predictive of the next.
Pick: Texas +1.5 (+105). Low confidence.
Los Angeles @ Oakland
The nature of these picks dictates that I publish this before lineups come out for this particular game, so I don’t yet know whether Matt Olson or Cody Bellinger will play. That said, neither does the market, so if it’s weighting those probabilities accurately and holding everything else constant, this breaks on the side of the A’s right now.
Pick: Oakland +1.5 (-105). Low confidence.
