Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,776 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We’re beginning our MLB futures portfolio effort today, and the plan is this: Every weekday, from now until the end of the regular season, we intend to publish two medium-confidence futures picks. We may, of course, alter this plan, but what this generally means is that we’re working with 520 units for the regular season, and we’d recommend setting aside an additional 520 units for the postseason and hedging. Calibrate accordingly.
World Series
I think two things are happening here. First, there’s a hangover fear. Possibly relevant, but remember that Ronald Acuña Jr. guy? That’s an element of freshness (and what a gift, coming back with DH-ing an option). Second, there’s a Mets fear. Definitely relevant, but it’s looking like one of those things where the market never fully corrected to the Jacob deGrom news, or even the Max Scherzer news. No offense to Tylor Megill, but the Mets are starting Tylor Megill on Opening Day. Atlanta’s the favorite in their division, and while they aren’t the best team in their league, only the Dodgers are better. That might even go for Major League Baseball as a whole.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1200. Medium confidence.
AL Central
This was supposed to be a rebuilding year in the Twin Cities, but nobody seems to have told the Twins. Yes, the White Sox are the team to beat, and yes, the Tigers are rising, but there’s a lot of room for the Twins to make things happen, especially with Chicago so bullpen-dependent. The risk with early-season longshots is that they’ll sell at the deadline, but the Twins’ playoff probability is nearly fifty percent. That’s not a seller, and neither is the team who decided to wager their bank on Carlos Correa.
Pick: Minnesota to win +500. Medium confidence.
