Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,811 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We’ve got two MLB futures and one MLB pick. For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
World Series
The fact Atlanta’s among the top two World Series favorites and is still positive value speaks to just how loaded this roster has become. It’s a dominant team on paper, and the price hasn’t gotten too high just yet. Couple in the hot start, and we’re happy to add these guys to our portfolio.
Pick: Atlanta to win +750. Medium confidence.
NL West
This one’s a little tougher on the smell test, but the price is great and with the Dodgers taking that step back—like we talked about with Arizona earlier this week—the NL West is more open this year. Even with the Padres stepping forward. Really, the Dodgers price is opening up opportunity on the Giants, while the Padres are closer to even value at the moment.
Pick: San Francisco to win +1200. Medium confidence.
New York (NL) @ Milwaukee
Can the Brewers finish the sweep?
The likelier thing is that they do. The question is how likely that likelier is. The Mets definitely have the better lineup, but Corbin Burnes is among the best in the game, even if his first start of the year was a little spotty. At this point in the year, we tend to trust FanGraphs, and among games flashing positive value through their probabilities, this is the most probable one to hit. We’ll take it.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -130. Low confidence. (Burnes and Peterson must start.)
