Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,375 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Miami @ Milwaukee
The Brewers are trying the Zack Godley experiment tonight, hoping he can get back to his 2017-18 form after two negative fWAR seasons. Even if it goes poorly, the Marlins are banged up enough and the Brewers bullpen is good enough that there’s probably a little value here.
Pick: Milwaukee +1.5 (-165). Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ Los Angeles
Will the Reds sweep the Dodgers? Probably not. But this line is overstating how roughly Sonny Gray’s first start back from injury went.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +180. Low confidence.
Boston @ New York (NL)
Jacob deGrom is tough to beat. But again, the line is overestimating how tough, especially with the Mets’ offense prone to struggling.
Pick: Boston to win +220. Low confidence.
Anaheim @ Texas
Again, probably some recency bias here. Dane Dunning struggled his last time out, but his season numbers have been great.
Pick: Texas +1.5 (-145). Low confidence.
