Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,804 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
More MLB futures today, as we rise to 62 of 520 units invested (with 520 more units in reserve, waiting for October or September hedging).
ALCS
We’re at a point in this process where we’re not able to add much that’s new. We’re in good shape if the Twins win the Central. Atlanta winning the World Series works out well for us. Those are the best-value plays, but they aren’t the highest-probability plays, and building a portfolio like this given our current goals (ensure profiting by at least 150+ units, or roughly 15%) requires balancing value with probability. You can make the best bet in the world, but if it’s only 10% likely to win, you’re going to lose it 90% of the time.
The long and short of all this is that we’re trying to balance individual markets, and with only our White Sox bet in the AL Central an unprofitable winner for us (meaning if it hits, we won’t profit within the AL Central as our portfolio’s currently constructed), we’re not trying to dig out of holes as much as we’re trying to prevent them from forming. Currently, were we to place an ALCS bet on anyone but the Blue Jays, our Blue Jays bet would become unprofitable within the ALCS market. So, with value positive but not obscene at these odds (the Twins’ AL Central value is obscene, and we’re hoping it stays that way so we can pour a lot into it when we’re in a well-balanced place elsewhere and can subsidize the risk), we’re creating a little space.
Pick: Toronto to win +375. Medium confidence.
World Series
One spot we do have a hole we can easily fill is the World Series market, where Houston’s a valuable option today and we have no previous bets down on the Astros. We have AL West bets, we have an ALCS bet, we had no World Series bet, now we do. They’re our eighth team (joining Atlanta, Boston, both New Yorks, Philadelphia, San Diego, and Toronto), and they give us six of the most probable winners (we’d love some value on the Dodgers, but we probably need the Giants or Padres to go on a wild run or the Dodgers to really flop for that value to materialize—more likely than not, we’ll be targeting hedges at these guys come roughly October 6th).
Pick: Houston to win +1200. Medium confidence.
