Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 179 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Four picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Fangraphs is great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the games.
Texas @ Oakland
Drew Smyly has what’s believed to be a minor arm injury, so Kyle Dowdy, a Rule 5 draft pick this winter for the Mets who the Rangers subsequently claimed off waivers, is making his first career start today.
Dowdy, as his Rule 5 status implies, isn’t exactly a highly touted rookie, and projections on his performance this year vary. So far, he’s been serviceable, and if he can get through four innings tonight with the game in reach, one would imagine the Rangers would be satisfied.
His opponent, Aaron Brooks, was never a Rule 5 pick, but he hasn’t exactly been the most promising prospect himself, bouncing between AAA and the majors for various teams since 2014. With so many starters injured, it’s possible Brooks will stick around in the A’s rotation for a while, even if Oakland would prefer their other guys back.
Pick: Texas to win +145. Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Toronto
Drew Pomeranz and Clay Buchholz square off in a matchup of former Red Sox (the two overlapped in late 2016), but far more interesting is the fact that today will not be the MLB debut of one Vladimir Guerrero Jr., commonly regarded as baseball’s best prospect.
When Vlad Jr. does get the call (likely sometime in the next week), he figures to immediately slot into the middle of a lineup in desperate need of production. So far this year, the Blue Jays rank 22nd in baseball in wRC+, with Justin Smoak and Randal Grichuk figuring to be Guerrero’s primary protection. Not exactly ideal conditions for a debut, but the man who posted a combined .437 OBP across AA and AAA last year is as likely as anyone to be up to the task.
The Giants have no such prospect waiting in the wings, though Joey Bart could be a valuable piece in a year or two if San Francisco can figure out how to fit him, Buster Posey, and Brandon Belt into two combined slots in the lineup.
In other words, if Brandon Belt gets hot and the Giants do not, don’t be surprised to see him wearing a different uniform come August.
Pick: Toronto to win +110. Low confidence.
Chicago (AL) @ Baltimore
The game you’ve all been waiting for.
In all seriousness, the White Sox are interesting. While Eloy Jimenez has yet to demonstrate the prodigious skill at the plate that made him such a well-hyped prospect, Yoan Moncada seems to be piecing things together, at least through a seventh of a season. Moncada’s wRC+ sits at 161 (meaning he’s been 61% better than the average hitter so far), and his OPS is just below 1.000.
Forming the other half of the South Side’s unlikely pair of bashing middle infielders is Tim Anderson, who has actually been hitting better than Moncada so far, and much better than that Manny Machado guy White Sox fans were hoping they’d see at shortstop.
Unfortunately for the Sox, much of the rest of the lineup has been woeful, and BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which usually averages out to around .300, is high for both Moncada (.377) and Anderson (.456) so far, indicating impending regression.
Still, things are marginally better for Chicago’s AL team than Baltimore’s. At least the White Sox have a slew of top-60 prospects to be excited about.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +110. Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Anaheim
CC Sabathia continues to defy time and gravity, an enormous 38 year-old doing things folks his size and age shouldn’t be able to do. He’s only two starts into the season, but he’s lasted five innings in each, and he has yet to allow an earned run.
The Angels have no such blessings in the rotation, instead relying on guys like Felix Pena, whose FIP (6.23) suggests that his already underwhelming 4.15 ERA may soon head in the wrong direction.
Thankfully, though, the Angels do have one old, large man at least performing adequately elsewhere on the diamond. Albert Pujols, in the eighth year of a ten-year, $240 million deal, is hitting right around the league average, and may even be due for a little positive regression if his BABIP of .207 is any indicator (it makes sense that Pujols would have a low BABIP—he’s slow, so he does worse on balls in play than the average batter—but one would still expect it to be higher than .207). Given how the last two seasons have gone, the Angels would presumably be exciting about average from Pujols.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -104. Low confidence.
