Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,792 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Below are our 21st and 22nd futures of the MLB season. If you’re new to this, what we’re doing is investing 520 units over the course of the regular season (with 520 more units in reserve for hedging and the postseason) in an effort to get our all-time results back to a positive average return. We have our strongest history in MLB futures, hitting on a lot of Nationals picks in 2019 and plays across the board last year, with only a small loss in 2020. Currently, our focus is on breadth—we’re trying to diversify our portfolio in these early weeks to build a broad base. When a team on which we haven’t bet shows positive value in a given market, we take that bet. When no new teams are available at positive value, we try to add regular season bets on those on whom we only have postseason bets, and vice versa. It’s this regular season thing we’re doing today.
NL East
There are two themes to what’s happening here. The first is that the market isn’t reacting to the magnitude of yesterday’s results. “It’s only April,” but a road win over the Dodgers and a double header sweep of the Giants moves the needle. The second is that the Phillies, as we wrote yesterday, have had the worst start of any team in the Majors by some metrics. That opens doors. Did you know the Mets have a three-and-a-half game lead?
Pick: New York to win +125. Medium confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win +150. Medium confidence.
