Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,297 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re currently relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio, but that’s subject to change.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball, both moneylines and futures, and the first steps in our NBA playoff futures portfolio.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 13–14 so far, down 2.15 units. It’s been a bad start, but we’ve been hotter lately, going 8–4 over the last five days for a 4.03-unit gain.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We plan to place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started yesterday with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re placing just one per day.
Washington @ Los Angeles
There’s a lot of value on this one. Jake Irvin’s been pitching respectably so far, Landon Knack isn’t much of a prospect, and the Dodger bullpen isn’t as fresh as it looks. The Dodgers should be a huge favorite, as they are, but the number shouldn’t be *this* big.
Pick: Washington to win +198. Low confidence. (Irvin and Knack must start.)
ALCS
Fresh opportunity on the Blue Jays today, with the market still catching up to Toronto’s little four-game winning streak.
Pick: Toronto to win +1200. Medium confidence.
AL West
Fresh opportunity on Seattle as well, as the Mariners look to sweep the Reds this afternoon and the AL West as a whole continues to struggle.
Pick: Seattle to win +290. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
Even at this price, Paine’s model is flashing positive value on the Celtics. Given they’re so likely to win the East, we’ll likely want something on them eventually. Given our unease with the other options showing positive value through that model (Cavs, Knicks, Pelicans, Thunder, Timberwolves, Pacers, Bulls, Hawks), we like this as an anchor. Trying to pick our spots with this portfolio.
Pick: Boston to win +170. Low confidence.
