Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,788 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We’re onto our sixth day of MLB futures. If you’re new to this, what we’re doing is investing 520 units over the course of the regular season (with 520 more units in reserve for hedging and the postseason) in an effort to get our all-time results back to a positive average return. We have our strongest history in MLB futures, hitting on a lot of Nationals picks in 2019 and plays across the board last year, with only a small loss in 2020. Currently, our focus is on breadth—we’re taking the highest-value plays each day on teams we haven’t yet bet on. At some point, possibly tomorrow, we’ll have to switch to going deeper on individual teams, but for now, we’re minimizing holes while still getting some value.
World Series
The thing about the Mets is that if they’re good enough to reach the postseason, they’re probably going to be very good within the postseason. Their roster is so dependent on Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer being healthy that if they are healthy, the Mets have a chance to be the best team in baseball. There’s a good enough chance of that happening (Scherzer’s had health issues over the years, but they’ve tended to be more tweaks and twinges than deGrom’s problems are) to justify this play. Good to have in the portfolio.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +1400. Medium confidence.
NL West
This very narrowly makes the grade, but it does make the grade, and with the Giants, generally speaking, worse on paper than they are on the field (when things are going well—it might stop, but this was the story last year and this is their hope this year), we’re guessing opportunities to get positive-value plays on them will be few and far between. This might save us an expensive hedge down the line.
Pick: San Francisco to win +650. Medium confidence.
